Before jumping into Houston’s forecast, I want to say a few words about a seasonal hurricane forecast that has been generating a lot of attention. You may have seen it on a local TV station, social media, or elsewhere, and the gist of it is that the forthcoming Atlantic hurricane season is going to be really busy. The source of this seasonal forecast—which is clearly a case of overhyping things to get attention—is Weather Bell. The not-subtle headline on the forecast is “Hurricane Season from Hell First look.” It was actually issued a month ago (I saw it then and ignored it, FWIW), but it has been gaining traction of late.

The graphic that accompanies the seasonal forecast. (Weather Bell)

Predicting a “season from hell” is quite a statement to make in <checks notes> January. The forecast is not signed, but it reads like it was written by Joe Bastardi, the site’s chief forecaster. I like Joe, and I think he’s a talented forecaster. But he is prone to hyping things up. Case in point is the graphic showing the maximum amount of storms heading into the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and Southeastern United States. There is just no real way to predict where the favored area of activity will be in a given hurricane season, especially six to nine months in advance. Sure, Joe could be right. But to confidently make such a prediction in January? That’s folly.

The primary basis for this seasonal forecast is that the current El Niño in the Pacific Ocean (which tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity) will flip to a La Niña by this summer. For our purposes this really means the months of August, September, and October, when the strongest hurricanes tend to form in the Atlantic. Such a flip is possible, but far from certain. Based on the latest modeling, there’s about a 50 percent chance of La Niña next summer during hurricane season, 40 percent chance of neutral conditions, and 10 percent El Niño. So, hardly a slam dunk.

Here’s what I would take away from all of this. Texas enjoyed an exceedingly quiet hurricane season in 2023, with no real threats to speak of. That is unlikely to be the case again this coming season, when we probably will see more activity in the Gulf of Mexico. But anyone who is selling you on a hurricane season from hell, in January of all months, is probably trying to sell you something else. Caveat emptor. I’d recommend you start paying a little more heed to seasonal forecasts in April and May.